How will emerging technologies change travel and shape Sydney?

SGS Principal and Partner Alison Holloway presented at the Arup Shaping our Cities Forum ‘Future of transport in Sydney’ in March 2016. The forum brought together a mix of speakers to discuss how emerging technologies might change the way people travel and how the city might be shaped.

Alison presented on Sydney’s growth challenge and an understanding of Sydney’s economic geography to demonstrate that transport technologies that contribute to ‘smart cities’ will different affect parts of Sydney differently. Opportunities to take advantage of telecommuting – for example - will be spatial and policy considerations will need a keen eye on the varying impacts across Sydney’s communities.

Presentation Summary

Sydney is expected to see an additional two million residents over the next 20 years. This may continue to reach over seven million by 2051 and 8.5 million by 2061^[1] – the current population of Greater London ^[2]. Of course, there is great uncertainty in these estimates. Back in 2004, the expectation was that population growth would be at a lower pace than what was actually realised. The only certainty is that the numbers appear to be on the rise.

These high levels of population growth are driving housing demand in locations with good access to the opportunities available in Global Sydney. This growth is placing pressures on housing affordability and transport accessibility. The levels of growth and change are such that all available transport technology solutions and increased opportunities for teleworking will be needed to unlock additional transport capacity through demand management and peak spreading.

Sydney’s industry profile has changed substantially over the past 20 years as it has become more connected into the Global Economy. In the mid 2000’s the number of jobs in professional services and health care overtook jobs in manufacturing sector in Sydney. All signs suggest that these two sectors will continue to dominate the future job profile. These are the industries that thrive on the connections between people and face to face contacts. While teleworking ^[3] can harness improvements to ICT to reduce commuting times easing peak pressures on the transport network and have a positive impact on work life balancing, there remains high need and preferences for face to face connections.

In addition, the take up of telecommuting varies considerably across industries and occupations. Recent ABS data shows that professionals (66%) have the highest proportion of people who accessed the internet for home based work on a regular basis for their employer. Machinery operators and drivers (16%) and labourers (16%) had the lowest proportions of home based workers who accessed the internet for home based work.^[4] This take up of telecommuting and occupation groups vary spatially across Sydney. The percentage of workers across Sydney (home location) who regularly access the internet from home for their employer on a regular basis is shown in the interactive map above.

The locations with the highest rates of accessing the internet for home based work regularly are also the locations that are seeing the highest house price values and rating high on indicators of unaffordability. The locations that have the lowest levels of internet use for work are also those locations that experiencing some of the highest levels of disadvantage according to the SEIFA index.

Early Canadian research ^[5] has suggested telecommuting and travel times are beginning to impact on housing choice and location decisions. The future may see more families choosing homes that balance affordability with the reducing need for a daily commute. This may see increasing opportunities for locations that are well connected to higher order workplaces in Global Sydney through fast rail or air travel.

While its clear new technologies will change cities, it is really people leading innovation and creating smart cities. In doing this, we need to ensure the spatial differences across our cities are considered and that innovation improves all aspects of city performance, including addressing the growing social and spatial inequalities across the city.

Footnotes

1. ABS Cat. 3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (released November 2013)

2. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-31056626

3. Whether that is home based self employed workers, mobile workers or arrangement between employer and employee that allows work to be performed outside of the usual workplace on a regular basis.

4. ABS Cat. 8146.0 - Household Use of Information Technology, Australia, 2014-15

5. Tayyaran & Khan (2007) Telecommuting and residential location decisions: combined stated and revealed preferences model. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering. 34: 1324–1333.