Victoria

In Victoria, inner-metropolitan populations are the most impacted; in particular, those in the local government areas of Melbourne, Yarra and Port Phillip.

The City of Melbourne is the business, recreational, education and tourism centre of Victoria, so it’s no surprise the food and hospitality, and retail sectors support a significant local workforce. A large portion of workers in the Yarra and Port Phillip local government areas are also employed in relatively vulnerable occupations.

In regional Victoria, the proportions of vulnerable workers in these sectors tend to be relatively low outside of the major regional centres, excepting tourism-reliant regions such as the High Country and parts of the Surf Coast Shire.

An important difference between large regional service centres, such as Ballarat, and more visitation-oriented economies, such as the Surf Coast, is that the first relies largely on expenditure drawn from the catchment population. In contrast, the second relies upon tourist expenditure. Economies with local population-driven expenditure are likely to recover faster than economies with expenditure linked to tourism.

New South Wales

Like Victoria, areas with the largest proportion of workers in vulnerable sectors reside in and around the central business district. The City of Sydney has the highest proportion of vulnerable workers, with Waverley and parts of the Inner West and Inner South home to large numbers of vulnerable workers.

For parts of regional New South Wales – where agriculture rather than tourism is dominant – the proportion of the workforce in vulnerable employment is relatively small. However, some regional centres and areas that attract tourists, including the Southern Highlands and the Snowy Mountains, will be impacted.

Parts of New South Wales where retail and hospitality businesses rely upon expenditure drawn from beyond the local area will recover slower – meaning more workers in these regions are likely to be out of work for longer. Central Sydney with its reliance on tourism, education, retail and hospitality expenditure, will be heavily impacted.

Outside of Sydney, the impact will be particularly severe in parts of New South Wales that not only rely on tourism but were also impacted by the 2019/20 bushfires.

South Australia

In Adelaide, vulnerable workers are spread more evenly across the metropolitan area, with higher concentrations in Prospect, West Torrens, Campbelltown and Marion. This spread reflects the fact that retail and hospitality expenditure in Adelaide is more likely to be driven by local population than interstate and overseas visitation, highlighting the very different role of the retail and food and hospitality sectors in Adelaide’s economy compared to Melbourne and Sydney.

That said, international education is a major driver of expenditure in Adelaide, in particular, central Adelaide. With a significant share of the retail and hospitality offer in central Adelaide geared to servicing this expenditure, the impact of the shutdown will be felt deeply within the square mile.

South Australia's wine regions draw in a significant amount of expenditure from beyond their local population catchments, and the workforces of these regions - including the Barossa and Clare Valleys, McLaren Vale and the Coonawarra - will likely be severely impacted.

Elsewhere in regional South Australia, the tourism-reliant workforces of Kangaroo Island and Robe are particularly vulnerable, with the proportion of local workers in vulnerable sectors among the highest in Australia. For Kangaroo Island, the economic consequences are likely to be acute, as the community continues to grapple with the aftermath of the catastrophic summer bushfires.

Queensland

Douglas in Far North Queensland is the most exposed local government area in Australia with 26.5 per cent of workers identified within vulnerable sectors.

With the Queensland economy broadly reliant on tourism, it comes as no surprise that constituent tourist regions such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Whitsundays and Cairns are particularly vulnerable. With foreign and domestic tourist numbers likely to be slow to recover, these regions and their workforces face significant challenges in the aftermath of the crisis.

Western Australia

Western Australia contains some of the more vulnerable parts of Australia in terms of workforce. Looking first at metropolitan Perth, the City of Perth, and the inner-city local government areas of Victoria Park and Vincent are vulnerable with many retail and hospitality workers servicing city workers, tourist and visitors.

In the regions, the workforces of local government areas within important tourist regions are expected to be severely affected, including Margaret River, Shark Bay, Exmouth and Broome. When tourism returns in Australia, it will most likely be overwhelmingly domestic, and car-based which will favour tourist regions within a relatively short drive of the major population centres. Within Western Australia, this means that businesses servicing tourism areas such as Margaret River have relatively good prospects for recovery once tourist travel resumes. Recovery will be slower for regions distant from major centres that are reliant on visitors arriving by air.

Tasmania

In Tasmania, the regions with the highest share of vulnerable workers are in and around metropolitan Hobart, with the City of Hobart the most vulnerable. Other parts of the state with high proportions of vulnerable workers are city regions that serve regional catchment, i.e. Launceston and Burnie. Outside of Tasmania’s most populated areas, the east coast – with an economy heavily reliant on external visitation – has the most vulnerable workforce.

Tasmania’s relatively strong recent economic performance has been driven, in large part, by tourism. However, with tourist numbers not likely to return to pre-COVID levels for some time, many of the retail and hospitality jobs created to service tourism expenditure will not return in the aftermath of the crisis.

Northern Territory

In Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs, a large share of workers are in vulnerable sectors and are likely to be impacted by the shutdown. With many businesses in these regions heavily dependent on tourist visitation, the absence of international tourists, and the likely severe downturn in domestic tourists willing to fly, means that many lost jobs in retail and hospitality are not likely to return soon.