Tasmanian Department of State Growth
Employment, housing and population land use projections help identify key infrastructure and public transport upgrades needed across Greater Hobart.
In 2020, SGS prepared small area employment and population land use projections for Greater Hobart as key inputs into the Greater Hobart Urban Travel Demand Model (GHUTDM). The projections included a range of demographic and economic variables for the base year of 2019 and forecast periods of 2030, 2040, and 2050. The scenarios modelled represented a base or ‘policy evolution’ situation which reflected the most likely urban future based on current data, trends, and expected policy/structural changes.
Following on from this work in 2021, the team updated these forecasts with three additional land use scenarios – a business as usual scenario, a MetroPlan scenario, and a decentralised city scenario. Considering the integration of land use and transport, these scenarios were designed to test the limits of plausible development pathways, allowing for the broader impacts on the transport system and development patterns to be better understood. Comparing these three scenarios allowed the respective merits of each scenario to be compared to determine the traffic impacts of each and conclude what infrastructure and public transport upgrades were needed across Greater Hobart.