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Comparing population growth by area - the real story

Posted April 12, 2017

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SGS Economics and Planning populationg growth

Comparing population growth across Melbourne shows a clear need to increase the supply of medium-density housing into the missing middle.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population growth data (2015-16) found that South Morang [1] had the biggest population increase in Melbourne during 2015-16, with almost 5,000 people added. Other suburbs with high growth included Cranbourne East, Craigieburn – Mickleham and Point Cook (Table 1 and Figure 1).

South Morang is 60km2 in area, making it one of Melbourne’s largest suburbs. The median suburb size in Melbourne is around 8km2 and the average is around 36km2. Many of the growing suburbs cited by the ABS (see table 1) are also the largest in terms of area.

Table 1: Melbourne suburbs with largest population growth

Suburb - Statistical area 2 (SA2)	2016-16 Population	2015-16 Population growth	2015-16 Growth rate	Area (KM2)
South Morang	65,354	4,971	8.4	59.70
Cranbourne East	23,901	4,956	26.2	42.90
Craigieburn - Mickleham	52,848	4,491	9.3	106.10
Point Cook	50,774	3,512	7.4	36.90
Epping	42,236	3,226	8.3	84.90
Tarneit	36,961	2,872	8.4	62.10
Truganina	23,222	2,863	14.1	27.00
Melbourne - Hoddle Grid	35,447	1,975	5.9	2.40
Melton South	24,341	1,831	8.1	111.00
Beaconsfield - Officer	13,605	1,817	15.4	41.70

ABS Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2015-16

Figure 1: Melbourne suburbs with largest population growth

SGS Economics and Planning comparing population growth

ABS Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2015-16, SGS Economics and Planning

An alternative method of comparing growth

To provide an alternative method of comparing growth across Melbourne, we combined suburbs to produce areas of roughly 60km2 each – the equivalent area of the suburb of South Morang. Although the mix of land uses within each ~60km2 area will impact growth, taking this alternative approach reveals a somewhat different population growth story (Table 2 and Figure 2).

The 60km2 area with the largest population growth in Melbourne was, by far, the combined areas of Melbourne City and Port Phillip where 9,300 people were added in 2015-16. Furthermore, three areas experienced growth of around 5,000 people: the Inner North (which includes the suburbs of Brunswick, Thornbury, and Fitzroy), Cranbourne and Cranbourne East, and South Morang. When combined, the 10 largest growing areas accounted for around 40 per cent of Melbourne’s population growth during 2015-2016.

Table 2: Melbourne areas of 60 km² with largest population growth

Area	2015-16 Population	2015-16 Population growth	2015-16 Growth rate	Area (KM2)
Melbourne City & Port Phillip	244,806	9,301	3.9%	57
Inner North	244,159	5,352	2.2%	60
Cranbourne & Cranbourne East	45,895	5,311	13.1%	56
South Morang	64,354	4,971	8.4%	60
Point Cook & Altona	84,099	3,985	5.0%	65
Truganina, Hoppers Crossing & Laverton	71,441	3,894	5.8%	67
Tarneit	36,961	2,872	8.4%	62
Bayside	168,241	2,702	1.6%	56
Maribyrnong & Sunshine	126,652	2,325	1.9%	57
Keysborough, Noble Park & Springvale	100,992	2,255	2.3%	58

Craigieburn - Mickleham**	52,848	4,491	9.3%	106
Epping**	42,236	3,226	8.3%	85

SGS based on ABS Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2015-16 ** For completeness Craigieburn – Mickleham and Epping have also been included in Table 1 despite being much larger than the 60 km2 benchmark.

Areas of the highest growth

In Figure 2, the areas which experienced the highest growth are in the inner suburbs (typically driven by apartment developments), the west of Melbourne, and the northern and southeastern growth areas (typically driven by detached housing).

The large growth in the inner city population is a result of high amenity and superior access to jobs and services. However, there is still pressure to maintain this amenity and level of accessibility in the face of the large population increase. The seaside amenity, two train lines, and mix of medium density and detached housing see the Bayside area at 7th on the growth ranking. The growth in Melbourne’s west stretches from Footscray, where there is a booming apartment market, to the greenfield subdivisions of Tarneit. This growth has exacerbated pressure on infrastructure, job access and service provision.

At the same time, the population growth has provided a range of economic opportunities for Melbourne’s west. Growth in Melbourne’s outer north has been spread across greenfield subdivisions from Craigieburn through Epping to South Morang. In the past decade, this corridor has grown by over 100,000 people. This has created challenges in accessing jobs and services and placed pressure on local and regional infrastructure.

In Figure 2, the growth in the south-east of Melbourne in Keysborough, Noble Park and Springvale [2], and Cranbourne is driven by greenfield development. These parts of Melbourne have better access to local services and infrastructure than their northern counterparts. However, there is still a shortfall in job access and local infrastructure in these rapidly growing areas.

Figure 2: Melbourne areas of 60 km2 with largest population growth

SGS Economics and Planning comparing population growth2

ABS Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2015-16, SGS Economics and Planning

The missing middle

Perhaps the biggest observation from Figure 2 is the clear ‘missing middle’ in Melbourne population growth pattern. While still increasing in population, few areas in the middle ring experienced strong population growth.

The middle ring suburbs are well suited to medium density housing (townhouses, terraces and dual occupancies). However, this type of housing has been notoriously difficult to deliver. This missed opportunity has impacted on housing affordability and diversity. While there has been a considerable amount of inner-city apartments and greenfield detached housing delivered, the middle ring has failed to deliver much housing.

The middle ring suburbs are some of the most infrastructure rich parts of the city in terms of transportation, retail and community services, open space and schools. Fostering more population growth in these areas by increasing the supply of medium-density housing will help to provide an alternative to apartments and greenfield housing. In addition, it will help provide significant infrastructure savings for the government.

References

^{[1] In most cases Statistical Area 2 align with suburb boundaries. For more on the Statistical Area Level 2 please see here

[2] The bulk of the population growth is coming from residual greenfield area in Keysborough.}

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