Victorian Department of Education and Training




Student demographic demand forecasts and webtool help plan and manage future government education infrastructure in Victoria.

In 2021, SGS prepared detailed and granular demographic and enrolment forecasts by grade for over 20,000 transport zones across Victoria for the Victorian Department of Education and Training to supplement the Victoria in Future data and to develop and apply demographic models to determine the expected future demand for government schools and kindergarten enrolments across Victoria. The forecasts are updated annually and draw on a wide range of local and macro datasets, which integrate official population projections. Our forecasting method is integrated with a broader small area forecasting environment which includes dwelling types, population, labour force and employment analysis, further increasing robustness across each individual dataset.

This work feeds into strategic programs and responsive assessments to plan for, and respond to, current and future demand for government schools and early childhood education provision. These responses range from enrolment policy and enrolment management, student re-distribution (for example changes to school zones), additional accommodation at existing schools and planning for new schools. Student demand forecasts can also be used for other service planning, for example, opportunities to co-locate early childhood facilities and student transport programs.

To assist the department in undertaking more detailed spatial analysis and helped to facilitate better capital funding and planning decisions at all levels of the Department, including early childhood facilities, we partnered with Crowdspot to develop a web-based mapping tool that effectively combines the demographic demand forecast data with broader population and housing data, as well as education facilities, enrolment and capacity data.

The forecasts and web-based tool are utilised by a wide range of users within DET and internal stakeholders for strategic planning, catchment analysis, profiling and business case development.

SGS Economics and Planning Enrolment forecasts2
SGS Economics and Planning Enrolment forecasts
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